CactusCountryProperty

SALES Month over Month
Below are the stats supplied by Arizona Residential Multiple listing Service. As they come in, we have permission to send them out. This kind of information is so welcomed. Interesting that the bank owned property sales are only representing 38% of our market and I just have to think that short sales are going through the roof. Whatever it takes to get this market balanced. If you have real estate questions or needs please know I am a phone call or email away and would love to help you
Sales continue on a strong pace over the past three months. May sales of 9,077 represent a slight dip (2%) from April sales of 9,306. This trend follows a typical spring seasonal upswing pattern in sales activity. Nationally, sales, according to NAR’s most recent figures (April), show a gain of 1.52% year to date.
SALES Year over Year
Sales for May 2009 and May 2010 were virtually the same, a first for any month over the last
twelve. Last year the trend lowered in June after the spring upswing, only to remain flat through
the summer and take a plunge in November. The 2% dip in sales from April to May could be
reflective of this pattern repeating itself, but no other economic indicators signal that this April to May 2010 dip is the beginning of a downward trend.

NEW INVENTORY
New residential inventory declined from 13,871 in April to 11,717 new listings in May. The reduction in new listings added to the market since March represents is a healthy decline. Such a pattern affects the supply and demand ratio, which directly influences pricing. The downward trend may stay on course, or perhaps be affected by Sellers who will take advantage of the summer selling season to test the market.

TOTAL INVENTORY
As new inventory is declining, total residential inventory remains high with total residential inventory at the end of May at 41,326 units compared to 39,902 in May 2009. The total inventory trend remains relatively flat over the past twelve months, hovering below 40,000 twelve months ago to just above that level presently. Year over year it appears that total inventory for 2009-10 is stalled relative to 2008-09. However, the 2008-09 inventory had hit an unprecedented number close to 60,000, too high not to realize a sizable decline eventually.

LIST PRICES
The average list price in May was $220,900 which is a small (4%) but positive gain over the previous month. The median list price declined (slightly under 3%) from April to May to $136,000.The decline in the median price coupled with a rise in the average price indicates that there are more homes in the higher range that are making it to the market. Year over year the median list price remains fairly flat.

SALES PRICES
Average sales price remain virtually unchanged from April at $171,300. Median sales price for May however shows an increase over April from $127,500 to $130,000, an indicator that while additional higher end sales are coming to the market, they are not selling for as high a percentage of their list price as are the more moderately priced units. While not huge, it represents a 2% increase and continues a pattern of year over year price increases.

The ARMLS PENDING PRICE INDEX™
The ARMLS PPI™ predicts future average and median prices based on reports of pending sales
executed but not yet closed. The ARMLS Pending Price Index is available only through ARMLS, the sole aggregator of pending sales data.
The ARMLS Pending Price Index™ last month predicted that the median sales price for May would be $128,000. The actual May figure is $130,000, actualizing the upward prediction from the April forecast. In the near future, the ARMLS Pending Price Index is predicting a slight decline in median price in June, July and August, followed by a upward tick in September. The average price predicted last month for May was $173,000, and in actuality was $171,000.
The average sales price trend predicted by the ARMLS PPI™ for the rest of the summer shows an
up tick for June and July, a decline in August with an uptick again in September. Note that predictive accuracy declines the further into the future the prediction is made.

IMPENDING FORECLOSURES
Impending Foreclosures for Maricopa County for all property classes (residential, land and commercial) was 45,898 at the end of May. This represents a steady, yet slight downward trend since March. In contrast, the previous year’s (2008-09) impending foreclosures were on a significant upward trend from June 08 through May of 09. While the downward trend for the last three months is a good sign, it should be noted that the overall number of impending foreclosures is higher than at any time the previous year.

LENDER OWNED SALES
Lender owned sales (residential), which is sold inventory that the banks have taken back from the original borrowers, was at 3,430 in May, representing a much lower percentage (38%) of the overall sales in the market. This contrasts with the lender owned percentage of overall sales from a year ago of 62%. Clearly, the market is going in the right direction. As the lender owned percentage of overall sales declines, the influence of these distressed properties on median and average sales price also declines, inching us closer to a healthy market.
© 2010 ARMLS, may be reprinted with proper attribution.

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
The average days on market (residential) in May, declined one day from April, to 96, showing only a modest decline and perpetuating the downward trend which started in March. Over time as the days in market decline, the absorption of excess inventory will increase, nudging us closer to a balanced supply and demand.

COMMENTARY
The Valley housing recovery at present seems content to move at its own deliberate pace, with its monthly gains and setbacks. While a monthly glimpse keeps our eye on the pulse of the recovery, longer term trends speak a more reliable truth. Speculation continues on the effects SB-1070 might have on the housing market. If many homeowners, regardless of nationality and immigration status, decide to sell or abandon homes in expectation of negative economic and social impact of this new law, the tenuous recovery could be undermined.
Signs are apparent that the Valley real estate is gaining ground in its recovery struggle. The decline in new inventory being added to the market hints that Sellers who are not serious are remaining on the sidelines. The sold unit trend has continued to climb since January. The slight dip in sold units from April to May is a somewhat positive sign, since a much greater decline would have seemed logical when the first time home buyer credit went away. Its absence caused very little change in the total sold units.
Most notable is the much lowered percentage of lender owned sales relative to total sales, coupled with the decline in impending foreclosures. The proliferation of foreclosure sales wreaks havoc upon pricing. Thus, a slowing of impending foreclosures which feed the total number of lender owned sales is a trend that signals a future recovery
Maureen Karpinski
Find your Phoenix Arizona Property at Cactus Country Arizona Homes & Properties

May 2010
SALES Month over Month
Housing sales continued strong in April with the closing of 9,306 residential transactions,
up over 3% from the 8,990 units sold in March. Nationally, housing sales fell fractionally
for the same period.
SALES Year over Year
The April numbers were 3.5% higher than April-09 when 8,475 houses sold. This pace far
exceeds the national picture which showed only a 2% gain, according to the latest
numbers published by the National Association of REALTORS®.
1
ARMLS STAT MAY 2010
Active Inventory
13,871 new residential listings were added to the ARMLS system in April, a 25% increase
over the same month last year when 11,118 were listed.
However Active inventory added to the system was down 5% from the previous month,
continuing a seesaw pattern of ups and downs evident over the past six months. On an
annualized basis, inventory in the most recent twelve months is down 5% from 158,000
to 149,000 homes for sale, slightly ahead of calendar year 2009 when 147,000 homes
were listed.
List Prices
Asking prices on new listings continued steady at $212,250 as the average and $139,900
as the median price. (The median price is the range midpoint where there are as many
listed houses above as below it.) The divergence between monthly average and monthly
median continues to narrow. This indicates optimism from sellers who have been waiting
on the side lines to put their more expensive houses on the market to test the waters. In
January, the average list price was nearly 65% higher than the median. In April, that
difference was down to 51% continuing a downward slide trend that we have seen for the
past four months.
2
ARMLS STAT MAY 2010
Sale Prices
Closed sales continued to show signs of recovery, with the Average sale price of a single
-family home in the Valley falling by about $7,000 to $171,200, down from $178,200 in
March. However, the good news is that April’s average was over 7% higher than the
previous year average price of $159,700. This continues the three month trend of year
over year price increases substantiating that the market is starting to stabilize and
improve.
3
ARMLS STAT MAY 2010
The ARMLS Pending Price Index™
The ARMLS PPI™ predicts future average and median prices based on reports of
contracts executed but not yet closed. The ARMLS Pending Price Index is available
only through the ARMLS system and has shown to be a strong indicator of future pricing
trends.
The average price is predicted to rise in May and June, then settle back in July only to
start upward again in August. Year over year, this is a continuing indicator that the
short term market remains fairly steady but still uncertain. The market, driven by first
time and move-up home buyer tax credits that expired in April, will no longer be
bolstered by those incentives. For the summer, all bets are off as the spring market
ends, the snow birds leave for cooler climates, and the summer doldrums set in.
The ARMLS PPI for Median prices likewise shows erratic behavior, ticking upward
fractionally in May, then falling back in each of the next three months. This would
indicate continued activity in the lower price ranges of the market as bank foreclosures
continue to dominate the sale picture.
4
ARMLS STAT MAY 2010
“ARMLS PPI” is a trademark of Arizona Regional MLS.
Foreclosures
The foreclosure inventory continues to plague the resale market by saturating the MLS
with bank owned properties offered at below market rates. The average asking prices for
new listings dropped in April to $212,200, down $5,000 from the previous month.
Currently 5,029 or 12.3% of the 47,836 active listings in the ARMLS system are bank
owned/foreclosures. However, in the previous month of April, 3,538 of the 9,306 closed
sales were foreclosures. With 38% of the closings being bank owned foreclosures, the
downward pressure on prices is formidable. ARMLS expects this trend to continue until
the economy begins to recover and unemployment abates.
In the Pending Listing class, 4,760 of the 14,855 of pending listings, or 32%, are bank
owned properties.
For the eighth straight month, the number of pending foreclosures has hovered within 1%
either side of 50,000, according to the Cromford Associates LLC, the market research
affiliate of ARMLS. As they have since August, 2009, banks continue to file foreclosure
notices of trustees sales at a rate of 200-250 per day, a trend that is not expected to
change for quite some time.
5
ARMLS STAT MAY 2010
Market Time
All of this activity has its effect on market time. The average days on market of a sold
property in April was 97 days, down four days from the previous month. But this is down
from a high of 135 days the market experienced just two years ago in May 2008. Homes
now are selling on average 25% faster than they were just twenty-four months ago.
Commentary
The most recent 12 months show record sales, with March and April leading the charge.
Active inventory added to the market continues downward, putting positive pressure on
supply and demand, a necessity if prices are going to rise.
The housing market continues to try to make a meaningful recovery, but is hampered by
continuing unemployment and economic uncertainty on the national level. ARMLS is
seeing mixed signals from month to month since last October, but positive gains are
mixed with losses. This is a classic pattern that markets make in gaining traction toward
recovery.
ARMLS continues to see glimmers of hope, but no long term, reliable indicators that the
market recovery is imminent. We continue to be hopeful, but must at the same time
remain objective and realistic. This recovery is going to take a long time to develop and
probably won’t mean a normal housing market will return for at least two or three more
years. All information suppled by ARMLS
© 2010 ARMLS, may be reprinted with proper attribution.
6
ARMLS STAT MAY 2010